January 26, 2012

San Luis Obispo Market

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Sellers

In our last blog, we posted the Credit Suisse report which provides survey information on the real estate market conditions nationwide, with additional reports for specific metro areas.

This time we are posting two graphs. Each graph covers the time period from July 2011 thru December 2011. One graph shows the number of homes for sale, the number of homes that went into escrow, and the number of homes that actually sold (closed escrow) for San Luis Obispo County. The second graph shows the same data for San Luis Obispo City. As you might expect, both graphs follow the same trend. Inventory, pending sales and sold properties have all declined over the time period. Some of the decline is seasonal. Some decline is that sellers hope for a more active market in the spring, and some decline is that buyers are still sitting on the fence hoping for a "Really good Deal."

We feel that prices are nearing the bottom, and with the record low interest rates, we are expecting a robust market in 2012. Remember, while price is important the cost of owning a home is even more important. While the prices may fall a bit more in 2012, if interest rates go up, the monthly cost of owning the same home may actually increase.

To search specific properties in San Luis Obispo County and Northern Santa Barbara County, you can go to the Farrell Smyth web site home page and click on the “View Listings” button. From there put in your search criteria and have some fun. You can also search properties worldwide by using the "RELO Home Search" button also on the home page.

If you have any questions regarding our graphs or on any properties you may search out, feel free to contact our office.

GOOD HUNTING!!!!

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



July 28, 2011

Price is Right

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Sellers

With the changing real estate market, if a seller really wants to sell their property, it is really important to get the price correct right from the start. My over 30 years of experience tells me this has always been true, but particularly in a market like we have today where prices are declining.

I recently took a listing on a nice PUD unit. I spent some time going over the market conditions with the sellers. The sellers agreed to list the unit at my suggested price, and we went into escrow in five days. Now we did not get the asking price, but the fact that we had two offers indicates that our pricing was correct. On the other hand, I have had owners filled with wishful thinking, wanting to list their property above the market, thinking, “Let’s try selling at this price, and we can always lower it later.” Believe me when I say this rarely works. Usually what happens is, the property ends up chasing the market down, and lingers on the market.

To back up what my experience tells me, I have attached a short article from my good friend Steve Harney, and his Guest Blogger Ken R. Johnson Ph.D. from Florida International University. Dr. Johnson sites an interesting study of the effects of over pricing. Take a quick look.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



June 14, 2011

A Great Time to Buy a Home

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Real Estate Sales, Sellers

These days we hear lots of opinions about the real estate market. Are prices going up, down, should we buy, should we sell? If you want to know what both the Wall Street Journal and Forbes magazine have to say, here it is: both Forbes and the Journal say it is a great time to buy. Interest rates remain low and the price of homes is at a point where more and more people can afford to purchase.

I can say that here in San Luis Obispo, we have seen a definite increase in buyer traffic in the first two weeks of June. Maybe some of them read the Journal and Forbes. Check out the attached article from my good friend Steve Harney for full details.

As always thanks for taking the time to read our BLOG. If you have any questions or comments, let us know.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



January 14, 2011

A Million Times Better

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Owners, Property Management, Real Estate Sales, Relocation, Rentals, Sellers, Tenants

We just received our final numbers regarding our web traffic for 2010. Let me just say that we are a million times better. In 2009 the Farrell Smyth web site generated 2.3 million hits. For the year end 2010, we generated 3.35 million hits, so we are over a million times better. Not too bad for a little ole real estate company from San Luis Obispo. So the question is, what is all the buzz about the Farrell Smyth web site?

First, we have the most up-to-date information on all properties for sale throughout San Luis Obispo County and Northern Santa Barbara County. The information is tied directly to the Multiple Listing System and updated every few minutes. You can’t find more current information then right on the Farrell Smyth web site. This information can be accessed by clicking on the “View Listings” button on the home page. Put in the criteria you want to search and there you go. At the same time you can set yourself up for instant updates when new properties come on the market. Next you can search for properties all over the world when you hit the RELO Home Search button. This will link you to any of our partners in the Leading Real Estate Companies of the World network. I go there once in a while myself just for fun. Give it a try.

If you are looking for a rental, just hit the “Rental List” button and get the most up-to-date information on the rentals we have available. Our rental list includes houses, condos and apartments throughout San Luis Obispo County. In addition, we list commercial properties such as office space and retail space. Again by going to our list you can sign up for instant updates so you will be notified each time a new property comes on the rental market. You can choose from e-mail or Twitter. You know the choice you make may show your age.

Here are a few of the other thing you can find on our web site.


  • Loan Calculator
  • Community comparisons
  • School Reports
  • Real Estate School Information
  • Homeowners Association Management Services
  • Property Videos
  • Maps
  • Blogs
  • Relocation Information
  • Community Activities and Events
  • Much More

Like our on screen spokesperson “Yoko” says, when you get to our web site take a few minutes and look around the site. Maybe with your help we can get to 5 million hits in 2011.

As always, your questions and comments are always welcome.

Larry D. Smyth
Broker/Owner

Farrell Smyth, Inc.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



January 13, 2011

December Credit Suisse Survey

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Real Estate Sales, Sellers

Once again we are posting the Credit Suisse Housing Survey. As a reminder this reflects the real estate market activity and trends around the nation. The survey is broken down into specific market areas. Take a look and see what the market is doing in your specific area. Here are the highlights of the report:


  • Buyers are hunting for bargins
  • Buyers have concern for rising interest rates
  • There is continued pressure on pricing
  • More buyers are looking

Click here for the full report. As always your questions and comments are welcome.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



December 02, 2010

Credit Suisse Report

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Rentals

Have you ever had one of those weeks. You know the kind I mean, you drop the toast and it lands jam side down, the refrigerator light burns out, and then your server crashes. Well that describes our week here at Farrell Smyth. Our server went down the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, and we were not fully operational until Monday morning. Everything seems to check out A OK for now so we dodged a bullet. Thank goodness for back up tapes, a patient staff, and a good IT group. It’s good to be back.

This week I did my duty and responded to the survey request from Credit Suisse regarding market activity for the month on November. We will get the results later in the month. In the mean time I also received the final report from Credit Suisse for October. The headline item is “Buyers Sit Out Another Month”. The main reasons cited are:

· Buyer Uncertainty

· Fear of Lower Prices

· Worries About Foreclosure Issues

To View the full report click here.

The Credit Suisse report gives details for many specific regions of the U.S. including many areas of California. There is some very interesting stuff. Take a look and see what’s going on in your specific area.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



October 13, 2010

September Credit Suisse Real Estate Report

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Sellers

This report from Credit Suisse reflects a continuation of the market from August. The four highlights of the report are as follows:

1. Homebuyer traffic did not rebound in September

2. Buyers are hesitant to buy due to price and job concerns

3. The home price index declined in September

4. Traffic did improve in a few selected areas of the country.

Click here to read the full report, so you can check what is going on in specific areas of the country.

How will the potential “Foreclosure Moratorium” affect housing values? I will cover that in my next post so stay tuned.

Your comments and questions are always welcome.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



September 16, 2010

Historically Low Interest Rates

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth

We have all seen the headlines about the historically low interest rates, but what does that really mean to buyers and sellers? Well take a look at the attached chart. As you can see, back in 2003, with interest rates at 6.26%, the monthly payment on a $200,000 loan was $1,232.00. Today, with interest rates for 30 year fixed rate loans at or below 4.50%, the same $200,000 loan is $1,013.37, for a savings of $219.37/mo.

So in today’s market, you can buy the same value of home as 2003 for less of a monthly cost. However, the value of homes today may be below what they were in 2003. As a result, you may be able to buy a better home today for less money than you could in 2003. This is great news for buyers. Actually, it is good news for sellers as well. With prices and interest rates both down, buyers can afford more home than they could back in 2003.

Yes buyers could try to wait for prices to go down more, but if interest rates begin to climb (and they surely will) the actual cost of owning a home may go up. The main thing is not to confuse the price of a home with the cost of owning a home. They are two different things. The key is to get the best home you can with the lowest monthly costs. After all, the monthly costs are what you will have to live with for a long time. I suggest you contact your local professional, full time real estate agent, like those at Farrell Smyth, to get help working through the numbers. 

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



September 15, 2010

Are We There Yet…The Bottom That Is

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Sellers

OK. So I promised that I would talk about when we are finally going to hit the bottom of the real estate price market. What a question. First we need to look at some figures supplied from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Click on the “Localized Prices” map to go to the attached web article with the interactive map. There you can look at what is going on in most markets across the country. You will be able to see four things:

1. Peak Price Date – The date prices topped out in each market

2. Price Decline – As a percentage of the peak market price

3. Bottom Date…If the bottom has been reached

4. Percent of rebound from the bottom

This is a terrific map. As you can see, each area reached the peak price at various times, and there are very few areas that have reached a bottom, or had any rebound.

In addition, this is a constantly changing situation. Let’s look at a second graphic. This graph shows the predictions on future housing prices from the CME Group. The CME Group is a group that invests in housing futures. Looking at their graph, you can see that on August 1, 2010 (represented by the light grey line) they were predicting the market to bottom out in November, 2011. Now as of September 1, 2010 (the dark blue line) they are predicting the bottom to be May of 2012. This is quite a change in the prediction in just 30 days. If I were to paint a picture of what the future might bring, I think it would be like a lava lamp, constantly changing. So stay tuned as we continue to keep track of these projections in the coming months. 

As always, if you have any questions or comments please let us know.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



September 10, 2010

Credit Suisse August Report

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Sellers

In my last post I promised to discuss when the downturn in real estate pricing is predicted to end. I am going to postpone that one post, because I just received the August report from Credit Suisse, and I want to share it with you right away. If you remember, Credit Suisse is a large investment firm and they do independent research in both the financial and real estate markets. Each month I am asked to take their survey and look forward to getting the results.

Click here to read and review the full Credit Suisse Report, but here are the highlights:

Headline:  Prices Dropping on Depressed Traffic

Buyer traffic was stable in August but still at a low level. Inventory is up. Buyers are concerned with jobs, weak economy, and lack a sense of urgency to purchase with expectation of lower prices. Even sale of foreclosure properties has slowed. The trend is expected to continue in the upcoming months.

So now the good news:  Interest rates remain low, lots of inventory to choose from and prices are down. This is a great time to buy. The cost of owning a home may never be lower. Even if prices go down, if interest goes up, the cost of owning a home make actually go up as well. If you are a first time buyer, there are still low FHA loans requiring as little as 3% down and low interest. If you are a move up buyer, you may feel selling your home now is selling at the low point of the market, but you can also buy up at the same low point. In many cases the price gap has narrowed for a move up.

Thanks for visiting my Blog again.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



September 07, 2010

Supply and Demand

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Sellers

We have all heard the old adages regarding “Supply and Demand,” and it certainly applies to the real estate market. With inventory growing, the “Supply” issue is certainly relevant in today’s market.

One of the key numbers for consideration is “Months of Inventory.”  So what does that mean? Well, let’s say that in a given market place or a given price range, three homes sold in a particular month, and at the same time, there are 30 homes on the market. In this case there would be a 10 month supply of homes. Statistically speaking, studies have shown that prices are directly affected by the inventory on hand. Here is the simple version.

· 1-4 months inventory – sellers market with homes appreciating

· 5-6 months inventory – normal market with stable prices

· 7+ months inventory – buyers market with homes depreciating

In our example with 10 months inventory, that market would see falling prices. When this occurs, sellers want to stay ahead of the curve and price their property right to catch the few buyers in their market.

You can see from the graph on the right (click to enlarge) that nationally, as of June 2010, there was a nine months supply. In fact, since August of 2009, there has only been one month where inventory was below the 7 month critical mark and that was November 2009 when the buyer incentives first hit the market. The buyer incentives are now gone and the inventory has climbed again.

In our local market, according to our “Multiple Listing Service” (MLS) statistics, the inventory for the months of June – August stands at 8.73 months which is up from 8.52 months during the March –May period. This reflects a growing inventory. This is backed up by more stats from the MLS. During the past 24 hours, we have 25 new listings, 8 sold properties, and 53 price reductions. So the real question is when will this market change? That is the topic for my next blog. As always, we welcome your questions and comments.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



August 24, 2010

Opportunity May Be Knocking

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales for existing single family homes fell by 27% during the month of July. In our local area, we can confirm this by looking at the “24 Hour Market Watch” on our Multiple Listing Service which covers all of San Luis Obispo County and Northern Santa Barbara County. During the last 24 hours we have added 35 new listings, while selling only 21 listings. So it looks like our inventory is on the rise. This has been the case on almost a daily basis for a long time. In addition, during the same 24 hour period we have had 42 price reductions. Just what you would expect as the inventory grows.

Wow, this doesn’t sound too great, but this may not be all bad news. Opportunity may be knocking. With slower sales, increasing inventory, and price reductions, this could be a great time to purchase. Interest rates remain at historical lows, with 30-year fixed rates below 4.5%. Larger inventory means more choices for buyers. Price reductions mean that sellers are more willing than ever to negotiate price and terms. To paraphrase the Honda commercial, Mr. Opportunity may be here knocking on your door.

Your Questions and comments are always welcome.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



August 24, 2010

e-PRO: An Advanced Designation to Help Provide the Best Services to Our Clients

Posted to Buyers, Homeowner Associations, Larry Smyth, Owners, Press Releases, Property Management, Real Estate Sales, Relocation, Rentals, Sellers, Tenants

We all know how the real estate industry has been changed with the advancement of the electronic age. We have all had to learn new technologies beginning with e-mail, and continuing with social media sites, web sites, and even Blogs like the one you are reading. As a long-time Real Estate Broker, I long ago recognized the importance of these changes. As a result, our company, Farrell Smyth, has made every effort to keep up with consumer demand for up-to-date electronic communications and information. As a part of our effort, I have recently completed the course to earn my e-PRO designation.

The e-PRO designation course is designed to train real estate professionals in the latest internet technologies to best serve our customers’ needs. Only 4% of all Realtors across the country have earned the e-PRO designation. So we are proud of our efforts to provide the best technology we can.

You already know about our Blog, but we want to tell you about another program we are just beginning. Constant Contact is our new marketing program. While our Blog will continue to provide general real estate information and updates on current market trends, Constant Contact will be strictly our marketing arm. We will provide information on new listings, price changes, open houses, and other cool stuff. Initially we will market to our current data base. Customers will be able to opt out if they wish, and rejoin at any time. If you would like to be added to our data base feel free to contact us, or in the near future you will be able to sign up on our web site home page at www.farrellsmyth.com. We continue to provide you with the most up to date information from the Central California Coast and beyond.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



August 17, 2010

Credit Suisse Survey

Posted to Buyers, Jennifer Hamilton, Real Estate Sales, Sellers

Each month I am asked to participate in a survey for Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse is an independent company that does market research for financial markets and real estate markets. In their July report, Credit Suisse evaluated three components in the real estate market. Traffic in the market by sales, downward pressure on pricing, and incentives in the market such as buyers credits. The Survey is done on a nationwide bases, then broken down to show trends in key real estate markets throughout the nation. In general, the conclusion for July is that, almost without exception, the traffic in the real estate market went down. In addition, the downward pressure on pricing continues as inventory increases, and incentives have all but dried up.

The major areas in California that are included in the survey are Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego, Sacramento, and San Francisco. Click here to read the complete survey which I found very interesting. Take a look at what is going on across the nation. California is not the only state feeling the pinch.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth



August 12, 2010

10 worst Cities

Posted to Buyers, Larry Smyth, Sellers

Aren’t We The Lucky Ones? We are unless you happen to live in one the ten worst rated cities in the United States.

The List begins in California, and ends in Florida with plenty of stops in between. The main criteria seems to be the economic conditions of each city which includes unemployment, and weak housing. As you would suspect these two items go hand in hand. Other factors include weather, crime, and pollution.

Here is the list of the worst along with a link to the full survey. If you happen to live in one of these cities, all I can say is you have my condolences.

1. El Centro, California

2. Cleveland, Ohio

3. Detroit, Michigan

4. Las Vegas Nevada

5. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

6. Los Angeles, California

7. Phoenix, Arizona

8. Newark, New Jersey

9. Miami, Florida

10. Memphis, Tennessee

While we have all been hit to some degree by the housing downturn, these 10 cities have really suffered.  As always we welcome your comments.

Posted by:  Larry Smyth